池田の政策からわずか1年で、設備投資額
・全産業 +28%
・自動車 +35%
そしてこの時、日本経済にとって最大の幸運がやってこようとしていた。
*人口ボーナス*という現象。
戦争直後の baby ブームの世代が、働く年齢に達していた。しかも子供も少なく高齢化も進んでいなかった。
上と下の世代が少なく、働く世代が極めて多いという人口構造の出現=人口ボーナス。
— 1 year after Ikeda’s policy —
The amount of capital investment:
↗︎ 28% in the whole industry
↗︎ 35% in the automobile industry
And at this time, the greatest luck for Japan’s economy was about to come …
・The rate of increase in the labor force > The rate of increase in population.
・The baby boom generation after WW2 had reached the working age.
・There were fewer children and elderly people.
→ The Phenomenon of Demographic Bonus
The Phenomenon of “Demographic Bonus”
人口ボーナスは途上国が先進国に生まれ変わる過程で、たった1度だけ起こる現象だと言われる。
働く世代は子供にお金がかからず、高齢者負担も少ないため、収入の多くを消費と貯蓄に回すことが出来た。
人々の旺盛な消費は、大量生産される製品を飲み込み、貯蓄は銀行を通じて企業の設備投資に変わる。
企業の大増産と巨大な国内市場。
The population bonus is considered to be a phenomenon which happens only once in a country that is developing.
In those days, people did not need to spend a lot of money on raising their children and supporting family members.
Therefore, a large part of people’s income was spent on themselves. People’s strong desire of consumption swallowed mass-produced goods and their savings were changed to companies’ capital investment through banks.
A significant increase in production of manufacturers and the gigantic domestic market were leading the country to accelerate its growth.
Growth in the economy
いよいよ高度成長が本格的に始まる。
企業は欧米にサル真似とバカにされようと、たゆまぬ技術革新で大量生産とコス トダウンを実現。
Companies continued to realize mass-production and decrease in cost with their unstoppable technological innovations while being criticized that it was nothing more than the imitation of what Western countries had done.
消費者は毎年重さが増す給料袋を片手に、次は何を買おうか悩むのが喜びだった。
Consumers were happy because their only worries were what to buy next. This was because of their yearly increased salary.
2件に1件だったテレビもほぼ全ての家庭が所有し、高音の花だった自動車も4分の1の家庭が保有するようになる。
豊かさを求めて走り出した国民を、池田のダミ声は鼓舞し続ける。
Household prevalence of TV became almost 100%, double of what it used to be. Also, a fourth of Japanese family owned a car which wasn’t common before the Second World War.
People were excited to hear Ikea’s speech. The Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda continued to raise people’s enthusiasm to become rich.
「日本人、すなわち世界一勤勉な、世界一流のいい頭を持ち、そうして自由主義経済の元で行くのなら、10年で2倍にすることは何でもない。いつまででも後進国でいるわけにはいきません。国民の皆さん、一緒に行こうではありませんか。」 池田
“For Japanese, who is the most diligent and smartest in the world, making our income double within 10 years in this laissez faire (free economy) isn’t a heavy task. Where have we been able to find energy, vitality, and imagination as great as yours in the rest of the world? We can’t continue to be an under developed country. To those of you, let’s go forward together.” Hayato Ikeda
Tokyo Olympic Games (1964)
高度成長真っ只中の1964年10月、東京オリンピック開催。
この開会式への出席が、池田の総理大臣としての最後の仕事になった。
がんに侵されていた池田は、このあと辞任し、翌年息をひきとる。
In the middle of the high growth of the economy, 1964 October, Tokyo Olympic Games was opened.
The Olympic opening ceremony was the last Ikeda’s appearance as Prime Minster.
He later resigned soon after and passed away on 13th August 1965 from throat cancer.
池田の死から3年後、1968年日本のGNPは52兆円を突破し、所得倍増を達成。世界第二位の経済大国に躍り出る。
一人の天才の理論が、日本が蓄えてきた実力を引き出し、一瞬の好機を捉えた。
実力と幸運がこれ以上ないタイミングで結びついて成し遂げられた、日本の奇跡 だった。
「本当に文字通り、千載一遇と言っていいような幸運に恵まれ、その幸運を我々は100%に近い形で生かすことができた。」下村
3 years after Ikeda’s death, in 1968, Japan’s GNP exceeded ¥52 trillion (=$144 billion) and double income was achieved.
As a result, Japan became the world 2nd largest economic power.
Shimomura’s theory brought out Japan’s abilities. It was a miracle for Japan because the timing of this was perfect.
“Literally, we were fortunate to be able to make almost 100% use of the one chance in a million.” Osamu Shimomura
