野口悠紀雄 早稲田大学ファイナンス総合研究所顧問

ありえないことが起きていた。要するに、低い金利で資金を調達し預金すればそれで利益ができてしまう(=これはありえない)。

そして地価が上がる→そうするとゴルフ場の開発がものすごい利益を出す→全く元出なしに会員を集め会員権を売ると銀行が簡単に融資する→そしてゴルフ 場ができてしまう

1987年に、ある雑誌に日本の土地の地価はバブルで膨らんでいるという論文を発表した。

多分、「この時の不動産価格の増加はバブルだ」と指摘した論文は初めてだったと思うが、非常に多くの批判を浴びた。 

Yukio Noguchi (An adviser of the University of Waseda financial research institute)

“During the economic bubble back in 1980s, unrealistic thing was happening in Japan. In short, raising funds with a lower interest rate and depositing it allowed anyone to be able to make profits, which was unrealistic.

Also land price went up. Then, the development of golf courses created a large amount of profits. Owners looked for members and sold them membership. After that, banks lent them more money easily and this was going to a new development of a golf course.

In 1987, I published a thesis where I mentioned that Japan’s land price was swelling in a magazine.

Perhaps, this was the first one which pointed out that the increase in land price was bubble. However, I got a bunch of criticism. 

Zaiteku(財テク)

”地価がバブルを起こすはずない。株は上がったり下がったりするが、日本は土地が少ない、だから土地の価格が上がるのは当たり前なんだ” 。

先ほどの阪和興業の例で、最初に「鉄の生産(本業)が伸びなくなっていった」、これが重要。

だからどこで儲けを出すのだ?ということがあったことと、金融自由化の歪み(ヒズみ)が重なって、財テクというものが生じた(という手段が選ばれてしまう環境が整っていた)。

企業は金融、素人は不動産に走って行った。このようにしてバブルが生まれ、ある時期急に膨らむ。

しかしここにもわけが あった。

Many critics said, “land price can’t cause bubble economy. Stock can go up and down. However, Japan has fewer lands so that the increase in land price is natural.”

When it comes to the example of Hanwa, the most important thing is that the production of steel (their main business) was declining in those days.

Therefore, they were seeking for another way of making profits. At the same time, sort of maladjustment triggered by the financial liberalization drove people to start Zaiteku.

This means the environment was ready for Zaiteku. Companies were heading to finance and amateurs were going to real estate.”

Plaza Accord(プラザ合意)

バブルの引き金とされるプラザ合意(1985年 9月)。

アメリカの求めるドル安を、先進5か国が協調して目指す事を決めた。

背景にあったのは、当時巨額に膨れ上がったアメリカの貿易赤字。とりわけ深刻だったのが、日米貿易摩擦。

アメリカでは自動車などの輸入が増大、そのため日本に対して円高誘導・金融緩和を求めた。

アメリカにとって円高が進むことは、日本からの輸入価格の上昇につながり、輸入を抑える効果が期待出来る。

そして円高が定着した後、日本が金融緩和を行えば、国内の資金量が増え景気が刺激される。すると日本へのアメリカ製品の輸出も拡大出来るという狙い。

Plaza Accord is regarded as the trigger of Japan’s economic bubble (1985 September).

5 advanced countries decided to aim weak U.S$ required by the States.

What was behind this was the US trade deficit which had accumulated massively of those days. In particular, the most severe case was a trade conflict between the U.S and Japan.

The car import from Japan had increased drastically back then. Therefore, the U.S required Japan to lead strong Japanese ¥ and the financial liberalization.

For the U.S, the appreciation of the Japanese currency meant that import prices from Japan would rise and they were able to expect to restrict imports.

Then, after the strong Japanese ¥ took root, if Japan implemented the financial liberalization, the amount of domestic capitals would increase and their economy would be stimulated.

Finally, the U.S would be able to expand their exports to Japan. This was the scenario that the U.S was deeming.

In those days, the U.S was not able to compete with Japan in terms of both efficiency and competitiveness.

Financial Liberalization(金融緩和)

プラザ合意から4か月経った86年1月、日銀は金融緩和に動き始める。

手段は公定歩合(日銀が銀行に貸し出す際の金利)の引き下げ、

86年3月 4.5%
   3月 4%
   4月 3.5%

公定歩合の利下げを行えば銀行に資金が流れやすくなり、市場の資金の量が増えて行く。

NHKニュース1986年

「この1年間に1平方メートルあたり67万円余だった土地の価格が、133万円 とほぼ2倍になりました。異常な上がり方です。短期間に繰り返された利下げで銀行による不動産業への融資が拡大し、地価の上昇が加速していった。日銀の中でバブルへの警戒感が強まり出したのはこの時だったと当時理事だっ た佃さんは語った。」

In January, 1986 (4 months after Plaza Accord), the Bank of Japan started the financial liberalization.

The means was reducing *the official bank rate (the rate of interest when the Bank of Japan lend money to banks)

1986
January 4.5%
March 4%
April 3.5%

Implementing the reduction in the official bank rate could make capitals flow into banks easily, and then the amount of funds in markets increased dramatically.

The price of one hundred square meters of land in Tokyo went up to ¥1,330,000 from ¥670,000 in this year, which was almost double and an unrealistic way of rising. The reduction in the official bank rate repeated within a short period made banks’ financing to real estate businesses expand and it resulted in accelerating the appreciation of land price eventually.”  1986 NHK News

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