ケインズ理論を学んだ下村は、経済成長の起爆剤は民間企業の設備投資にあるという結論に至った。
終戦直後から下村は工場を歩き、貧弱な設備でも工夫を凝らし、一つでも多くの製品を送り出そうとする生産者の姿を目に焼き付けていた。
生産意欲は溢れている。
あとは企業の設備投資を促す政策を打ち出しさえすれば、飛躍的な成長が自然に始まると考えていた。
Shimomura who learned Keynesian economics came to the conclusion that a trigger for economic growth was the investment in plants and equipment of private companies.
From right after the end of WW2, Shimomura visited a lot of factories and saw many producers working with very poor equipment and aiming to make as many products as possible. The nation was passionate about production.
Shimomura thought that if a policy which promoted companies to carry out the investment in plants and equipment was working out, dramatic economic growth would start spontaneously.
Positive Cycle
鉄鋼メーカーが設備投資によって質の良い鉄を安く作れるようになれば鉄を使 う自動車や家電製品も価格が下がる。
自動車が安くなればそれを買う消費者が増え、自動車メーカーも増産のために設備投資を行う。
すると今度は鉄の需要が増え、鉄鋼メーカーは新たな設備投資に向かう。
If steelmakers start to be able to offer quality products at competitive prices by investment in plants and equipment, the price of cars and household appliances, which need steel, will be decreased.
If the price of cars goes down, the number of consumers will go up and carmakers will also implement capital investment for a production increase.
Then, the demand for steel will increase and the steel manufacturers will carry out new capital investment.
この循環があらゆる産業で起これば、爆発的に日本の経済は成長する。
これが 下村理論の核心だった。
「産業界の設備投資がイノベーションの力で経済を推進していく。そうすればその結果として、どのような成長が出てくるかというような形で展望を作った」
If this positive cycle happens in all industries, Japan’s economy will rapidly improve.
This was the core of Shimomura’s theory.
”The capital investment in the industrial world will push through the economy with the power of innovation. I surveyed our future while thinking of this result.” Osamu Shimomura
Shimomura’s First Meeting with Hayato Ikeda (1958)
Photo: Osamu Shimomura/ Wikimedia Commons
1958年夏、孤軍奮闘していた下村は一人の政治家と運命的な出会いをする。政策の勉強会にブレーンとして招かれた。
待っていたのは衆議院議員池田勇人だった。
池田勇人は大蔵大臣や通産大臣を歴任するなど、将来を嘱望された政治家だった。
しかし、相次ぐ失言で次第に総理大臣の器ではないとみられるようになった。
「税金が高いから死ぬというのはどうかと思う。」
「中小企業の倒産や自殺はやむをえない。」
総理となるため目玉となる経済政策を探していた池田は、下村の高度成長論に飛びついた。
池田は数式が並ぶ難解な下村の理論を完全には理解出来なかった。
しかし、日本には強い成長力が潜んでいるとう考えには強く賛成した。
池田は難解な下村の理論を、誰にでも理解出来る言葉に置き換えた。
そしてそれこそが10年以内に所得倍増を実現するということだった。
Shimomura had a fateful meeting with a politician in the summer of 1958. He was invited to a study meeting as the main guest.
The politician was a member of the House of Representatives, Hayato Ikeda.
Ikeda was a promising politician since he had held some important positions, including the Minister of Finance and of the MITI.
However, Ikeda started to be regarded as an inappropriate person for Japan’s Prime Minister due to his lots of *controversial remarks.
“I think it is strange if people say, we will die because tax is high.”
“Bankruptcies of small and medium sized companies and suicide cannot be helped.”
In order for him to become prime minister, he was looking for an economic policy which would be able to help him appeal to voters.
He found Shimomura’s High-Growth Theory and decided to adopt it for his election policy.
In reality, he was not able to understand Shimomura’s theory which included very difficult numerical formulas.
However, he strongly agreed with Shimomura on his theory where he claimed that strong growth power was lurking in Japan.
All Ikeda had to do was paraphrase Shimomura’s difficult theory to accessible language that everyone would understand. Ikeda claimed that he would be able to double income wages in ten years.
The 1st Ikeda Cabinet (1960 July ~)
1960年7月 第一次池田内閣（所得倍増論）
「もし実現できなかった場合? これはね政治家はね一言一句、一挙手一投足 責任を取ります。」
池田は下村の理論通り、企業の設備投資を促す政策を次々に打ち出していく。
税収の6%に当たる1000億円の(法人税・所得税) 大減税を断行。
さらに銀行の貸出金利を引き下げ、企業が融資を受けやすい環境を整える。
The first Ikeda Cabinet started with the theory of “double income” from 1960.
“If I can’t realize the campaign pledge? Well, I’ll be taking full responsibility for it and stepping down. This is a practical politician.” Ikeda
He followed Shimomura’s theory and launched policies which promoted companies to invest in plants and machinery.
He carried out a ¥100 billion tax credit which included corporate tax and income tax. It accounted for 6% of Japan’s revenue.
Moreover, he created a business-friendly environment where companies were able to get loans from banks easily while lowering the rate of bank loans.
資金が生まれた企業は、こぞって強気の設備投資に走る。
黒田氏の会社もこの時期大規模な設備投資に踏み切る（自動車・家電用モータ に必要な金型の量産体制を整える）
「まず人間がやっているものは機械化する。機械化するものは自動化する。あの時代は（売り上げが）3年で倍にならなきゃ人並みじゃないと銀行まで言っていた。すごい時代ですよ。」
Companies which received financing from banks started to implement capital investments aggressively.
Shoichi Kuroda also decided to invest in large-scale plant and machinery during this period.
“Firstly, I mechanized what people were doing and then, automated the mechanized production lines.” Back then, banks even said, “if your sales does not triple in three years, I’ll consider your company to be falling behind your other competitors.” It was an unthinkable age.” Shoichi Kuroda
